Updated July 29, 2014<\/p>\n
Even though it looks like Argentina will in fact default tomorrow, it does appear as if the CDS market (derivatives) can absorb the loss. The “experts” estimate only a $120B total in CDS claims post-default…<\/p>\n
In a meeting last week with Pollack, Argentina called on the judge to create a safeguard against risks related to the RUFO clause, which the country has said may trigger claims of more than $120 billion. Griesa has rejected Argentina\u2019s repeated pleas for a delay.<\/em><\/p>\n Credit-default swaps that protect against losses from an Argentine default over the next three months imply a 43 percent chance of non-payment, according to data compiled by CMA. The South American nation\u2019s debt is the most expensive in the world to protect with the swaps.<\/em><\/p>\n \u201cIf payments are missed for a few days, or even a couple of weeks, acceleration is unlikely to happen,\u201d Citigroup analysts Guillermo Mondino and Jeff Williams<\/a> wrote in a July 25 report. If bonds subject to cross-default are accelerated, Argentina would still have 60 days to pay the original bonds and decelerate the notes, they said.<\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Updated July 26, 2014<\/p>\n No changes, except everyone is getting nervous, including the news agencies! Remember how the headlines from before were small and conspicuous? They’ve suddenly gotten more mainstream about this coming issue, which indicates that it is in fact much bigger than they made it out to be…<\/p>\n Note to Newbies<\/strong>: You’ll definitely want to get caught up on this long chain of news. This whole episode was identifed back in May and June from a Project August dream, so we’ve been following this one for quite a while. Please start with the “Previous Article” pasted below, and especially get to the ice cream cone analogy to see how this whole thing was identified.<\/em><\/p>\n The news is now getting large. Unfortunately, we received no indication from the dream about what the outcome will be. I’m doubling down that the 5.66 or 566 dream numbers have something to do with it. 4 days and counting…should we brace for impact, laugh about it, or just ignore it like everyone else wants to do?<\/p>\n REMEMBER: as you peer at the amount owed and laugh, keep in mind that derivatives have nothing to do with the amount owed or defaulted. It’s the amount of “insurance policies” that are backed by that default, and THAT is something that no one knows.<\/p>\n Lastly, we know that the debt will more than likely be defaulted on 30 July. That’s all we know at this point. If there are gobs of derivatives attached to this event, then it might take a few days, weeks, maybe even months(?) to ripple through the system. Throughout August, we’ll get more clarity.<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2014\/07\/26\/us-argentina-debt-idUSKBN0FV0DH20140726<\/a><\/p>\n http:\/\/latino.foxnews.com\/latino\/money\/2014\/07\/26\/default-looms-as-argentina-debt-talks-remain-deadlocked\/<\/a><\/p>\n http:\/\/www.chicagotribune.com\/business\/sns-rt-us-argentina-debt-factbox-20140725,0,3797756.story<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n July 20, 2014<\/p>\n I\u2019m currently waste deep into crystal-balling the latest Proj Aug dreams, but I bring you an important update about our ice cream cone dream analogy<\/a> that we\u2019ve been watching for months now.<\/p>\n The magic number is 10.<\/p>\n 10 days left until something economic happens. Will the elite be able to brush this one under the rug when it goes down, or will it cartwheel out of control, blowing the whole debt-based house of cards with it?<\/p>\n Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the President of Argentina, is going head to head with the puppeteers at the top, and she refuses to comply\u2026<\/p>\nPrevious Article…<\/h1>\n
“10 Days: Economic cone melts”<\/strong><\/h3>\n